2011 수확기 쌀 수급안정방안 } : 한국농촌경제연구원

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연구보고서

2011 수확기 쌀 수급안정방안

2011.11.30 40805

과제성격

정책연구(P154)
저자

박동규, 권대흠; 승준호
등록일

2011.11.30
연구주제

농업정책일반.

원문보기 좋아요

요약문

2010년 10a당 쌀 생산량은 483kg으로 흉작을 기록하였다. 지난 2년 동안 풍년 영향으로 역계절진폭이 발생하여 2010년에는 흉년임에도 불구하고 수확기 쌀 가격이 낮게 형성되었다. 이로 인해 2011년에는 쌀 가격 상승폭이 커졌고 정부의 개입에도 불구하고 단경기 가격은 수확기에 비해 11.5%나 상승하였다.

2011년에는 벼 재배면적이 작년에 비해 4.3% 줄어든 데다 벼 생육기간 중 일조량이 부족하고 강수량도 많아 작년에 이어 흉작이 예상되었다. 다행스럽게 8월 하순 이후 기상여건이 개선되었지만 작황은 평년작보다 적은 수준이 되었다. 수급불균형으로 인한 시장불안이 우려되었다. 따라서 수확기 쌀 시장을 안정시킬 수 있는 대책을 검토할 필요성이 대두되었다.

수확기 쌀 시장이 안정되기 위해서는 공공비축제가 원래 취지에 맞도록 운영되어야 한다. 비축물량은 많지만 소비자 선호도가 높은 최근년산이 많지 않으므로 시장안정 효과는 제한적일 수 있다. 또한 벼 재배면적을 인위적으로 줄이는 논 소득기반 다양화 사업은 유연하게 추진되어야 한다. 논 소득기반 다양화사업은 평년작 기준으로 사업 면적을 설정하였으나 주곡정책은 흉작을 가정하고 보수적으로 추진할 필요가 있다. 쌀 수급통계에 대한 정확성과 신뢰성 제고 필요성을 제시하였다. 농가나 유통업체 등 이해당사자의 수급통계에 대한 신뢰성이 낮으므로 벼 가격이 불합리하게 결정될 수 있다.

The 2011 rice cultivation area was reduced to 853,823 ha by 4.3% (38,251 ha) compared to last year, due to the diversification policy of paddy field income. The reduction rate of 4.3% in the 2011 rice cultivation area is higher than the average annual acreage reduction rate of 1.8% from 2001 to 2010 years. There was a concern for poor harvest because of the significant reduction of rice cultivation area and the poor weather conditions by the mid-August such as frequent and heavy rainfalls and reduced duration of sunshine.
Fortunately, the production level was expected to increase because the weather condition had been recovered to the normal from the end of August. The weather condition in the grain filling stage significantly impacts on the rice production level by 74%.
The rice supply in 2012 marketing year is expected to fall by 9.8% over the previous year to 5.53 million tones, due to the reductions of 2011 production and stock levels. The rice demand in 2012 marketing year is expected to fall by 12.7% over the las year to 4.51 million tones because of the reductions in food and processing rice consumptions. There will be no problem in supply-demand condition since the total demand is expected to be less than the total supply
However, the price during the harvest period was higher than the price level reflecting the supply-demand condition, due to the factors other than market condition. Most farmers delay the shipment expecting prices to rise, due to their belief that the rice production is less than the normal level. Although the weather condition improved at the late growth stage, many people worried that the real production is less than the government-announced level. Thus, it turns out that the farmers' sales in the early November had decreased by 16.2 percent compared to the same period last year while farmers' reserve level had increased by 14.3%. The delay of farmers' shipment and the high price during harvest periods are mainly due to the price rise expectation of farmers, who had experienced that the off-crop season prices rose by 11.5% over the harvesting season to 153,207 won/80kg in 2011 marketing year. The rice price can be declined as the off-crop season comes. Such price decline during the off-crop season over the harvesting season can make the price in the following year fall compared to the supply-demand conditions and the market anxiety repeat. Some mid-term measures may need to be considered, although additional stabilizing policies are not necessary because the supply exceed the demand in 2012 marketing year.
The public stockholding system should be operated according to the original purpose to prepare for the bad harvest. To contribute to the market stabilization by providing recently produced stock, the public stockholding reserve should be managed based on the principle of rotating or replacing 1/2 of the old reserved stockpile by the new one. The operation of the public stockholding system should be focused on the original goal to supplement the supply during the temporary shortfall. Therefore, the operation of the public stockholding system should be separated from purchasing for stabilizing market during the good harvest year and for government and military use.
Diversification policy of the paddy field income needs to be operated for farmers who voluntarily want to participate instead of against their own will. In 2011, the application period was extended from February, 21 to March, 31 and the operation scope was expanded to attain the goal of the diversification policy. The careful consideration on the diversification policy is required for the comprehensive review of the effectiveness during the trial period and sustainability for the future.
The accuracy of the production and consumption statistics is prerequisite for the effective implementation of market outlook and stabilization policy. Although the government claims that there is no problem in the supply-demand condition, there are many cases that the accuracy of production and consumption statistics is questioned and the rice prices move away from the appropriate level. Rice consumption statistics is considered relatively well to reflect the reality. However, the survey sample needs to be extended to cover one-person household and foreigners' one in order to improve the accuracy of the survey. The rice production statistics also need more sophisticated survey method to enhance the credibility of statistics for the involved parties. The survey sample of production statistics needs for careful review process to reflect the recently increasing proportion of high-yield varieties and regional productivity differences. The national statistical office decided to apply 90.4% Hyeonbaekryul(milling ratio) for production statistics with simultaneous release of survey results based on 92.9% Hyeonbaekryul for time-series stability from the statistics of 2011 rice production. Reassessment is still required to fill the existing gap between reality and the adjusted Hyeonbaekryul.

Researchers: Dong-Gyu Park, Dae-Heum Kwon, Jun-Ho Seung
Research period: 2011. 9. - 2011. 11.
E-mail address: dgpark@krei.re.kr