사료곡물의 안정적 확보 및 곡물가격 조기경보 시스템 도입 방안 } : 한국농촌경제연구원

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연구보고서

사료곡물의 안정적 확보 및 곡물가격 조기경보 시스템 도입 방안

2008.11.01 52578

과제성격

수탁보고서(C2008-42)
저자

성명환, 김태훈; 우병준; 채상현; 승준호; 박지은
등록일

2008.11.01
연구주제

국제농업

요약문

세계 곡물 소비량은 매년 지속적으로 증가하는 반면 생산량은 연도별 변동폭이 상대적으로 크다. 2000년대 이후 세계 곡물 수요가 급증하면서 국제 곡물 수급 여건이 악화되어 세계 곡물재고율이 급격히 하락하였다. 그 결과 국제 곡물가격은 2006년부터 급등 추세를 보이고 있다.
현재 우리나라의 곡물자급률은 27% 수준에 불과하며 대부분의 곡물 공급을 수입에 의존하고 있기 때문에 세계적인 고곡가 시대를 대비하여 곡물의 안정적 확보 방안을 마련할 필요가 있다. 이를 위한 국가 차원에서의 대책으로는 국내 곡물공급 능력의 확대와 해외로부터 안정적인 공급 등을 모두 고려해야한다.
세계 곡물시장의 변화는 우리나라의 곡물 수입에 큰 영향을 주기에 국제 곡물수급 및 가격에 대한 상시 모니터링을 바탕으로 위험요인들을 사전에 알려 대응할 수 있는 체제 구축이 필요하다. 또한 불안정한 국제 곡물시장 상황을 고려한 과거의 해외농업개발 추진 정책에서의 시행착오 경험을 바탕으로 필요한 곡물을 적기에 공급할 수 있는 대책을 수립해야 한다.
이 보고서는 국내 생산기반의 유지와 확대를 통한 중장기 국내 곡물자급률 제고 방안, 국제곡물의 수급 불안정과 가격 급등을 사전에 대처할 수 있도록 식량위기 조기경보시스템 구축, 국제 곡물가격 및 수급 불안정의 장기화에 대비하여 해외 사료곡물의 안정적 확보 방안을 제시한다.

The purpose of this study was to explore the alternative policies for a stably securing grains in Korea against an unbalanced supply and demand or high prices of world grains.
The production and consumption of world grains is on a trend of steady increasing. While the consumption has increased without much fluctuation, the production has been undergoing a radical change every year. The quantities of world grain production and consumption are expected to grow continuously in the long run. However, it is that recently the conditions of supply and demand for world grains have gotten worse. Since the increase of the world grain consumption and instability of the world grain production in the 2000’s, the international grain prices have increased rapidly from 2006.
In this situation, according to a result of stability tests for the production and futures market prices of world grains, the world production as well as the futures market prices was analyzed to be all instable. Although the world grain production has increased, there are still factors for instable production to influence the international grain price. Hence, it means that it is difficult to foresee how rapidly the world supply and demand of grain and the price will change.
Lately the situation of grain self-sufficiency of Korea has been remained at only about 27%, and the rest of the grain supply is relied upon the import. It is necessary to have a plan in a national dimension to guarantee a stable supply of the grain such as extension of domestic grain supplying capacity and a sustainable supply from overseas and so on.
It is also substantial to develop a system to provide grains in an appropriate time by establishing overseas grain marketing facilities and facilitating the overseas grain production for the future. Another possible scheme to raise the self-sufficiency is to extend the domestic grain production by utilizing the domestic agricultural resources such as land. Hence, it should provide consumers with domestic agricultural products of good qualities and proper prices.
As the domestic supply and demand of the grain is affected by situations abroad, it is essential to build a system for monitoring the world grain supply and demand as well as the price to inform risks in advance. So, we developed an early warning system in the grain market. The early warning model produced the complex leading index and the early warning indicator of the world grain price through the signal approach.
According to the precedence of the index of the complex leading index through the lag coefficient of correlation, the complex leading index seemed highly relevant to the risk index with time lag of 1~6 months. Thus, the early warning model of the grain price was approved to be reliable. Following the result of model analysis, the level of the early warning was divided in 5 steps with specifications per each step and the overall standard of counter plan.
To prepare for the instability of the world grain balance and a sudden rise of the price, many companies and agricultural related associations have been promoting development of overseas agriculture for the sustainable supply of the grain from the past, but repeated trials and errors. Therefore, the Korean grain marketing company need to participate into the international grain market by stages prior to developing the overseas agriculture. It is important to know that the international grain marketing industry is particularly a business to make profit in the course of repeated fails and successes.
This research suggested staged developing strategies, which have been expanding the agricultural investment level after accumulating sufficient knowhow and experiences in the international grain market and securing the grain marketing facilities. In a long term, there is a necessity to produce grains in the overseas for domestic utilization and to diversity the import countries to make provision for food crisis.
Researchers: Sung Myung-Hwan, Kim Tae-Hun, Woo Byung-Joon, Chai Sang Hyen, Seung Jun-Ho, and Park Ji-Eun
Research period: June 2008 - November 2008
E-mail address: mhsung@krei.re.kr