농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2006 보완 및 운용에 관한 연구 } : 한국농촌경제연구원

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연구보고서

농업부문 전망모형 KREI-ASMO 2006 보완 및 운용에 관한 연구

2006.11.01 31520

과제성격

기타연구(M080)
저자

김명환, 이대섭; 김태훈; 김배성; 조영수; 이용호; 윤태연
등록일

2006.11.01
연구주제

농업정책일반.

원문보기 좋아요

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 필요성 1
2. 연구 목적 2
3. 선행연구 2
제2장 KREI-ASMO 2006 개요
1. KREI-ASMO 2006 구조 개요 4
2. KREI-ASMO 2006의 검토 및 개선내용 7
3. KREI-ASMO 향후 연구과제 9
제3장 부문별 검토 보완사항
1. 거시 및 총량 부문 11
2. 재배업 부문 16
3. 축산업 부문 26
부록1. KREI-ASMO 2006 모형구조 32
부록2. KREI-ASMO 도입 변수설명 99
Abstract 120
표·그림 차례 121
참고문헌 122

요약문

KREI-ASMO (KREI-Agricultural Simulation Model) was developed by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) in 1996, and has been used to produce mid- and long-term outlook to analyze various alternative policies for the Korean agriculture. The model is a partial equilibrium model that adopts a dynamic structural/recursive simulation method.
KREI-ASMO is divided into five sub-models as follows: 1) a sub-model for forecasting of macro-economic variables, 2) an input price sub-model, 3) a grain and fruits and vegetable sub-model, 4) a livestock sub-model, and 5) a closing sub-model for the entire Korean agriculture.
The model has been applied as a useful quantitative analysis tool to forecast demand-supply schedule by commodities for Korean agricultural outlook. KREI has renewed the statistical data base every year and has improved the structure of the model to facilitate the role of KREI-ASMO.
In particular, KREI-ASMO task-force team was established in August, 2006. The team has been working on the entire model to find out the existing problems and to improve the structure of the model. Moreover, the team will continuously provide useful information about the results out of the model. In this report, changes for the model structure of KREI-ASMO 2006 is introduced and the major activities of ASMO task-force team is also provided.
Researchers: Myung-Hwan Kim, Dae-Seob Lee, Tae-Hun Kim, Bae-Sung Kim, Young-Soo Cho, Young-Ho Lee, and Tae-Yeon Yoon
e-mail Address: kimkim@krei.re.kr, ldaeseob@krei.re.kr, taehun@krei.re.kr, bbskim@krei.re.kr, yscho@krei.re.kr, gonlee77@krei.re.kr, taebary@krei.re.kr