Journal of Rural Development
Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Retail Meat Prices: A NARDL Approach
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AuthorShim, Chunsoo
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Publication Date2026.09.21
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Original
This study analyzed how exchange rate movements pass through to domestic retail meat prices in Korea using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model that distinguishes between won depreciation and appreciation to capture asymmetric effects. The analysis covered three major meat products—imported beef, Hanwoo (domestic beef), and pork—using monthly data from January 2010 to December 2025. The results showed that the exchange rate passes through to prices differently across products. For imported beef, the pass-through is strongly asymmetric; a rise in the exchange rate is quickly reflected in consumer prices, whereas a fall is not reflected to the same degree (long-run pass-through of approximately 0.58). For pork, the exchange rate’s direct effect is negligible; instead, the pass-through occurs indirectly through dollar-denominated international pork prices. For Hanwoo beef, no stable long-run relationship with the exchange rate was found. These findings indicate that exchange rate risk reaches each product through a different channel, and that even a product with a high domestic production share can be exposed to the exchange rate when its price is linked to international market prices. Accordingly, responses to exchange rate movements should differ by product: prompt short-term measures are warranted for products that respond directly to the exchange rate, whereas a medium- to long-term approach that prepares for international price fluctuations is more appropriate for products affected indirectly through international market prices.
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