Journal of Rural Development
The Effects of Tourism Motivation and Destination Selection Attributes on Actual Revisit to Rural Tourism Destinations
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AuthorRhee, Zaewoong
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Publication Date2026.06.21
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Original
This study investigates the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and the regional economy of Jeju Island, focusing on its major local crops. Agriculture accounts for approximately 10% of Jeju’s gross regional domestic product, underscoring its economic significance. The region has a production structure heavily reliant on vegetables and fruits and is experiencing a more rapid transition to a subtropical climate than other regions. Against this background, this study estimated the crop-level effects of key climate variables, such as rising average temperatures, precipitation shifts, and an increased frequency of extreme heat days. Building on these estimates under the projected climate scenarios for 2041–2060, this study evaluates the broader macroeconomic impacts on the region using an integrated CGE and agricultural sector model. These findings indicate that conventional vegetable and fruit crops are likely to experience overall declined in productivity under the projected climate trends. While a few crops may experience marginal benefit from rising temperatures, greater climate volatility, particularly the surge on extreme heat days, deteriorates production conditions, and effectively offsets these potential gains. The economic analyses further suggests that strategic crop substitution and effective productivity management of high-value crops could mitigate these losses. However, delayed adaptation may lead to substantial annual economic losses in Jeju. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing an integrated assessment of the effects of climate change on both agricultural productivity and regional economy.
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