Journal of Rural Development
The Non-linear Relationship among Agricultural Producer Price, Consumer Price, and Import Price in Korea
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AuthorSeok, Junho
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Publication Date2025.06.21
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Original
This study investigates the effects of the agricultural producer and agricultural import price indices on the agricultural consumer price index in Korea using monthly data from April 2004 to December 2024. Using linear and quantile autoregressive distributed lag models, the effects of the domestic agricultural producer price and import price indices on the agricultural consumer price index was studied in terms of short-run, long-run, linear, and non-linear effects. Our results show a long-run relationship between the agricultural producer price, import price, and consumer price indices. The effect of the domestic agricultural producer price index on the agricultural consumer price index is greater than that of the agricultural import price index. While the marginal effect, greater than or equal to the 70th quantile, of the agricultural producer price index on the agricultural consumer price index has an increasing trend with quantiles, that of the agricultural import price index on the agricultural consumer price index has a decreasing trend with quantiles. However, the absolute size of the marginal effect is greater for the agricultural producer price index. These results imply that a stable domestic agricultural producer price index is important to control the agricultural consumer price index.
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