Research Reports
A study on the supply-demand analysis and the outlook of domestic timber resource to set a policy goal for the Overseas Forest Resources Development
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AuthorLee, Sangmin
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Publication Date2014.12.30
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Original
The project of overseas development of forest resource, which was began with the object of securing stable timber suppliers, has raised doubts about the appropriateness of its goal. It is required, therefore, to set a new goal for the project under consideration of newly developed environments surrounding world forest resources. The purpose of this study is to set a new quantitative goal for the project. To meet the purpose the domestic timber supply was forecasted, and the supply-demand structures of the domestic wood markets were analyzed.
Increasing demand in accordance with the expansion policy of renewable resource consumption will require more wood and wood products imports from overseas. The demand, however, would not be fulfilled by the embargo on the export of log from rich-resource countries, which began from early 1970’s. Increasing trend of forest plantation area with increasing productivity may result in a higher growth rate of wood supply. Opinions that the growth rate of supply would not be enough to cover the growth rate of global wood demand are predominant, however.
According to the previous researches on the global wood and wood products the prices of fuelwood, industrial wood, sawnwood, and particleboard are expected to increase. The consumption of fuelwood will show an high increasement in the future. The outlook analyses for the domestic wood and wood products indicate that the imports will increase while the domestic productions will decrease even there exist some differences among the products. The overall demand of roundwood for the sawnwood, the plywood, and the fuelwood is expected to increase, while that for the pulp and board is expected to decrease. To satisfy the shortfall in terms of raw material 14 million cubic meters of roundwood should be imported in 2015 and 23.7 million cubic meters in 2050.
Several different scenarios, which are differentiated by the degrees of self-sufficiency, which includes the imported forest resource from overseas development, as well as the degree of security in wood and wood products are created. After due consideration of the opinions in the business and the current situations the proper scenario is set to 50% of self-sufficiency and 75% of security in wood and wood products, and it is required to have 1 million 108 thousand hectares of accumulated plantation forest until 2050.
Researchers: Sang-Min Lee, Cheol-Su Chang, Seong-Hwan Song, Ji-Eun Bark
Research period: 2014. 10-2014. 12.
Email address: smlee@krei.re.kr
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