Research Reports
The Development of Chinese Cabbage and Radish Forecast Models
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AuthorPark, Jiyeon
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Publication Date2013.12.30
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Original
Providing the guideline of production and shipments and contributing to supply and price stabilization measures of government, the agricultural outlook project conducted by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) has contributed to stabilization of supply and demand of agri-livestock products. However, in recent years, the fluctuation of vegetable prices has grown. Hence, a price stabilization policy has been more important. Moreover, there is a growing need for a forecast model which can give an accurate explanation of climate effects integrated with development stages. There is no available model for radishes, and in case of Chinese cabbages, the model, which has been used for forecasting so far, was developed in 2010 and shows many deviation problems related to recent climate change. Hence, in this study, we supplement the limitation of the previous cabbage supply-demand model, and develop the supply-demand outlook model including climate conditions and growth stages. Developing the cabbage supply-demand outlook model and the radish production outlook model, we can provide outlook information such as the number of hectares, estimated production, and prices. The information can be used in decision making of production and shipment and in governmental policy making.
We divide Chinese cabbage and radish into three categories and estimate acreage and yield functions for each. Using the estimation results, we can calculate the total product quantity. For the estimation of acreage planted, we use price information. We find that except the high altitude area in Gangwon, acreages of all types are affected by each type's price in the previous year or by the price of the previous type. For the estimation of yield, we use weather information in biological growth stages. Our study shows that yields are affected by climate and especially by climate in the planting period and cold weather.
The price of Chinese cabbage is estimated with quantity supplied in markets and previous monthly price and disposable income data, and the estimation result shows that Chinese cabbage prices are affected by quantity supplied and the previous monthly price.
Researchers: Ji-Yun Park, Young-Gu Park
Research period: 2013. 8. ∼ 2013. 12.
E-mail address: jiyunpark@krei.re.kr, ygpark@krei.re.kr
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