Research Reports
Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply in Korea
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AuthorKim, Changgil
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Publication Date2012.12.30
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Original
Background of Research
Climate change caused by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korea’s and overseas agencies specialized in climate predict that the average global temperature will continue to rise. While climate change has a positive impact on the food sector, significantly negative impacts are dominant. In this context, this study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system to respond to climate change.
Method of Research
In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, various analytical models were used, for example, a response analysis based on the questionnaire for farmers, an analysis of causes of pests and diseases in rice production by using the panel data, an analysis of extreme weather impacts by using the panel analysis-random effects model, and an analysis of food supply effects by using an integrated model in which the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model is connected to the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).
Research Results and Implications
An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO to reveal reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, to result in rice reduction by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and soybean reduction by 21.2%p and barley reduction by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that self-sufficiency ratio of rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity, the import capacity from other countries, and the policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing the infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving the buffering capacity are suggested by improving resilience and bio-diversity, building a risk management system, and further storing up food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are suggested by constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with involved countries. Finally, key tasks for improving the policy performance capacity are suggested by refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model to policies, expanding investments in research and development and building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing climate change centers.
Researchers: Chang-Gil Kim, Hak-Kyun Jeong, Suk-Ho Han, Jeong-Seung Kim, and Dong-Hyun Moon
Research Period: 2012. 1 ～ 2012. 12
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