Research Reports
Modelling Supply-demand Structure and Outlook of Korean Timber
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AuthorLee, Sangmin
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Publication Date2008.11.01
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Original
This study is design to provide meaningful information on the optimal utilization and sustainable management of Korean forest for the forest planning of the government. The need for this study stems from the recognition that the current management system could not continue to keep the resource cycle efficient.
The two markets of products and raw materials are analyzed to develop a model as they are linked in a relationship of supply and demand. Since wood products are not utilized at the final stage of consumption, we estimated derived demand functions from profit maximization problems. A Simultaneous system provides an equilibrium for each product. The volume of products demand is converted into a volume of log demand by applying conversion factors. It is assumed that import volume is decided by subtracting domestic supply from the total demand.
Domestic suppliable amount of log is estimated by Cohort age class analyses of forest area. The result says that there would be enough stock of the final age class for domestic supply until 2050. If we manage the forest more efficiently and develope more productive species, only 20% of the volume of final age class is sufficient for the expected total demand of 2050.
There are some problems which decrease the reliance of the model. They should be complemented continuously even after this study. Finding an optimal rotation period of forest for sustainable management, which is originally designed, is also a very important task to enhance the quality of this research.
Researchers: Lee Sang-Min, Chang Cheol-Su, Kim Kyeong-Duk
E-mail address: smlee@krei.re.kr, cschang@krei.re.kr, kdkim@krei.re.kr
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