Research Reports
The Seasonal Cabbage Model
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AuthorKim, Yeanjung
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Publication Date2006.06.01
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Original
These seasonal models are consisted of spring, summer and autumn cabbages models and estimated by a simulation.
The first step of the estimation process is to identify each behavioral parameters by E-views. Chapter 3 provides estimations results, including R-squares, Durbin-Watson statistics and t-statistics in each estimated equation. The definition of the variables, model names, and primary data sources are presented in Appendix 1, 2 and 3.
The second step of the process is to obtain predicted values from 2005 to 2015 by using estimated parameters and Excel program. There are four different Excel sheets; Data_Sheet, Equation_Sheet, Table_Sheet and Graph-Sheet.
The Data_Sheet includes the data for areas, yields, productions, consumptions, wholesale prices, retail prices, import and export volumes, exchange rates, and customs duties of Chinese cabbages. The Equations_Sheet is consisted of an acreage response function, yield function, import and export function, and price flexibility function. The Table_Sheet has data for estimation and the Graph_Sheet includes the various graphs for outputs.
Chapter 4 provides the simulation results by Excel. Based on the expected tariff rate under the assumption of the success of DDA negotiation, the import and export volumes, domestic wholesale price and retail price of Chinese cabbage are simulated and presented.
The model can also calculate the import and export volumes, domestic wholesale price and retail price of Chinese cabbage when the domestic yield is completely decreased by weather and insect problems.
The main advantage of the presented model in comparison with other models is that it easily provides (desirable) simulation results when the situation are changed. The weakness of the model is that it only covers three seasons rather than four seasons because of the data limitation.
Researcher: Yean-Jung Kim, Bae-Sung Kim, Seong-Hwan Song, Young-Gu Park
E-mai addressl: yjkim@krei.re.kr, bbskim@krei.re.kr, song9370@krei.re.kr ygpark@krei.re.kr
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