Research Reports
Mid- and Long Term Projection for Chinese Agriculture to 2014
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AuthorEor, Myongkeun
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Publication Date2005.12.01
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Original
Since 1978, Chinese economy has grown rapidly. As income increases, consumer tastes have changed to promote agricultural restructuring. As a member of WTO, China has experienced the globalization of its economy and integrated into the world market system. As a result, Chinese agricultural production has already begun to transit from land intensive products such as grains into labor intensive ones such as livestock as well as horticultural products.
This study adapted not only quantitative approach but qualitative one to analyze Chinese agricultural trend in the mid- and long term. According to the qualitative analyses on the prospects of Chinese agriculture, productions of most grains are to decrease. Reduction of cultivated land, low level of relative prices, and environmental concerns seemed to negatively affect to grain production. Exceptionally, productions of Japonica rice and corn are forecast to increase. As income goes up, consumers tend to demand more Japonica rice instead of Indica rice. Also, they are likely to consume more and more meat products which may raise derived demand for feed grain such as maize and soybean meal, etc.
As a result, import of wheat, corn, and soybean is forecast to surge sooner or later. That may imply that China, which has enjoyed the status of a net exporting country of corn, should turn to a net importing country in a near future. Production and export of garlic and onion, however, are expected to increase. Especially, their production and export in Shandong province have started to grow rapidly since China joined WTO in 2001.
Livestock market has also experienced structural changes nowadays. Chinese traditional consumer preferences for pork began to significantly move toward beef and poultry meat. Health concerns also seem to promote the changes in demand from red meat to white one. Demand for clean and safe food tends to expand as the economy grows and food sanitary problems prevail all over the country.
The quantitative analyses on Chinese agricultural production and consumption in 2014 also show somewhat consistent results with the qualitative approach in general. There exist, however, some discrepancies between rice projections in 2014 from three institutes, OECD, CAAS, and USDA. OECD usually projected largest volume of production of rice while CAAS prospected smallest volume. But they are in common having optimistic projections on Chinese balanced demand and supply of rice in 2014.
Researchers: Myong-Keun Eor, Bae-Sung Kim, Hyun-Ju Lee, Keun-Pil Park, Chung-Gil Chung
E-mail address: myongeor@krei.re.kr
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