Research Reports
A Study on Modelling and Management of the Korea Agricultural Outlook Model: 'KREI-ASMO 2003'
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AuthorKim, Baesung
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Publication Date2003.12.01
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Original
A Study on Modelling and Management of the Korea Agricultural Outlook Model: 'KREI-ASMO 2003'
KREI-ASMO (Korea Agricultural Simulation Model) was developed by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) in 1995 and has been used to produce mid-term and long-term outlooks of the Korean agricultural sector and to analyze various alternative policies. The model is a partial equilibrium model and a dynamic ex-anti simulation model for the Korean agricultural sector.
Especially, the model has been applied as useful quantitative analysis tool to forecast demand-supply situation by commodity as well as to make agricultural outlook and to estimate and analyze various policies.
KREI has renewed the statistical data-sets year by year and has improved the structure of the model to facilitate the role of KREI-ASMO. In this context, this study has been carried out annually.
KREI-ASMO could be divided into five sub-modules as follows: the module for forecasting macro-economic variables, the module for forecasting input-prices, the module for cultivating sector outlook, the module for livestock sector outlook, and the module for forecasting agricultural total product value and total added value in agriculture. Also, the imported commodities in the model are rice, pulses, miscellaneous grains, oilseeds, red peppers, chinese cabbage, white radishes, barley, garlic, onions, other vegetables, apples, asian pears, grapes, tangerines, peaches, persimmons, beef cattle, dairy cattle and products, pigs, and chickens.
In this study, the previous version ASMO (99) was totally reviewed and we pointed out several problems of the previous version with the suggestion of possible alternative solutions.
Researchers: Kim Bae-Sung, Suh Jin-Kyo, and Lee Byong-Hoon
e-mail Address: bbskim@krei.re.kr, jksuh@krei.re.kr, shopper@krei.re.kr
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