우리나라의 1인당 쌀 소비량은 소득증대, 먹거리 다양화, 인구구조 변화 등으로 쌀 소비가 육류, 과일류 등으로 대체되면서 급격한 감소추세가 지속되어 왔다. 반면, 쌀에 편중된 농업정책, 농업인의 고령화로 인한 농가 일손 부족, 단위당 수확량 증대 등으로 쌀 생산량 감소는 소비량 감소에 비해 더딘 모습을 보였다. 이로 인해 쌀 이외의 식량은 대부분 수입에 의존하는 데 비해 쌀은 과잉생산이 지속되어 쌀값 하락, 재고 누증, 직불금 등 정부재정 소요액 증대로 귀결되었다.
본 연구는 이러한 쌀 소비 변화, 쌀 과잉생산 문제, 농업자원 및 재원의 쌀 편중 문제 등 식량산업 전반을 고려한 식량 수급정책 수립을 통해 식량 소비 변화에 대응한 균형된 식량작물 생산체계 구축을 위해 기획되었다. 특히, 최근의 쌀 소비량 감소추세 완화는 단기적으로는 쌀 수확기 대책, 중장기적으로는 식량 수급정책 수립에 매우 중요한 요소로 이러한 현상이 일시적인지 아니면 추세의 변화인지에 대한 면밀한 분석이 필요한 상황이다.
따라서 본 연구는 쌀을 중심으로 식량 생산 여건, 소비 감소 추이 및 행태 변화를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 우리나라 식량산업이 당면한 문제인 쌀 과잉공급 구조와 농업 재원과 자원의 쌀 편중 문제를 개선할 나름의 정책 방안을 도출하였다.
Background & Purpose
The Korean staple grain industry is faced with a decline in food consumption, a high import dependence on grains other than rice, overproduction of rice, and overconcentration of agricultural resources and policies only on rice. The purpose of this study is to develop a staple grain policy plan for a balanced grain crop production and consumption system through a close analysis of the problems faced by the current Korean staple grain industry. In particular, the recent easing of the decline in rice consumption is critical for establishing not only rice price stabilization measures at harvest period in the short term but also the overall rice supply and demand policy in the long term. Hence it is necessary to analyze whether the easing in rice consumption decline is temporary or whether the trend is changed.
The purpose of this study is to derive policy measures to overcome the problem of excess rice supply and overconcentration of agricultural resources and government’s policy on rice. To achieve this goal, this study analyzed the staple grain production condition, rice consumption trend and behavior change.
In order to clarify the cause of rice oversupply structure, this study divided the domestic staple grain industry into production side and consumption side. On the production side, the profitability of competing crops such as corn, soybeans, and potatoes, and the cultivation environment in rural areas were analyzed to examine the possibility of conversion of rice to other crops. Therefore, even though wheat and barley belong to major grain crops in Korea, they are excluded from the analysis because they are winter crops which do not compete with rice cultivation.
On the demand side, the study focused on rice consumption behavior analysis. In addition, since rice consumption is very different for food and processing, analysis was carried out separately.
The main research methods used in this study are micro consumer data analysis using the econometric analysis method, consumer questionnaire survey, and foreign case analysis.
Results and Implication
The causes of persistence of rice farming in rice paddies were analyzed to be the lack of labor force due to the aging of farmers, the high rate of mechanization in rice production, and the more stable rice prices and income than other crops. Therefore, the basic direction of the staple grain policy should be set up to solve the problem of over-support only on rice by strengthening financial and policy support for rice-competing crops. Specifically, it is necessary to eliminate the linkage between rice production and the variable direct payment. And fixed direct payments need to be integrated into one system so that there is no payment difference between paddy rice and other field crops. In addition to the efforts to achieve the original target area, the follow-up measures of the rice cultivation area reduction project which is implemented by next year should be prepared so that cultivation of the converted crops can be continued.
The analysis of statistics on rice consumption, the trend of rice consumption in Japan and Taiwan, and the estimation result of the rice demand function using econometric methodology suggest that decline in rice consumption has not been eased yet. In addition, the expected population aging may increase the rice consumption, but the effect is expected to be very limited, since the generation effect is larger than the net aging effect in the rice consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to establish and implement a staple grain supply policy based on the assumption that the excess rice supply structure will continue in the future as rice consumption continues to decrease.
The consumption of rice for processing increased by more than 3% per year, which is considered to play a role in mitigating the decline in overall consumption of rice. Particularly, consumption through lunch box, processed rice, rice porridge increased greatly. Therefore, in order to cope with the demand for increasing consumption in rice processing industries, it is necessary to strengthen supports of R&D for appropriate varieties and quality.
Japan and Taiwan also have responded to the overproduction of rice and implemented a production adjustment policy from early on and had some achievements such as balancing rice supply and demand. However, due to the continuing decline in rice consumption, the area subject to production adjustment has been continuously increasing, which has exposed the limitation of increasing government burden. Therefore, production adjustment policy, which requires government finances, should be used as a temporary policy for the transition period as it can lead to an increase in financial burden.
Researchers: Kim Jongjin, Kim Jongin, Yoon Jongyeol, Jo Namuk, Park Donggyu
Research period: 2018. 1. ~ 2018. 10.
E-mail address: email@example.com
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